Hey everyone,
I’m still on vacation so I’ll likely get to my regular video making in a few weeks.
In the meantime, we’ve had some nice moves up in the crypto market lately! In the chart below, it tells us whether the market is in bitcoin season or altcoin season. It is quickly moving toward altcoin season after consolidating in bitcoin season since March 2025.
I’ve shared previously that we are in phase two of the banana zone. Phase two is when altcoin season takes off. (The green line below is what I added to reflect current market prices.) It appears that we are still on track for altcoin season to take place.
There’s very positive bullish news that if Congress is able to pass the 3 crypto bills that can provide the regulatory framework for the industry, this will likely be a major catalyst that can be the fuel for altcoin season to take off! The House has just advanced the bills to be taken up for consideration.
Will we see the rest of altcoin season play out? The honest truth is I don’t know. I’ve been praying for clarity and I don’t have it. There are still major risks (cracks in the bond markets, Iran/China/Russia threats, etc.) that could stop altcoin season in it’s tracks. I still strongly believe that a crash is on the way but I don’t know when this will take place.
So how do we trade what’s in front of us? What I share is not intended to be financial advice but I’m merely sharing my own opinions of what I’m doing and what I believe to be true about our positions. Please do your own due diligence when setting up and executing your trading plan.
The strategy will depend on which coins we are talking about.
SHIB and LUNC already have their buy and sell limit orders in so the strategy is already set for them.
XRP and XLM – Sell 20% when prices significantly increase. For example, I would like to start considering profits if XRP hits $10 but it depends on how fast it it gets there.
OXT and ZBCN – Sell at least 50% as prices increase. If these positions hit at least 100%, I’ll consider selling half to keep the other half invested risk free.
The price increases to sell will be monitored real-time to make decisions based on catalysts of the market and technical analysis. If I think it’s a good time to sell any, I’ll notify you.
By waiting for higher prices, particularly with XRP and XLM, I might lose the current unrealized profits I have now. I’m OK with that because I believe that they will be worth much more in the future and the current market structure is bullish so I want to capture higher percentage gains.
Why sell only 20% of XRP and XLM if a crash is coming?
I’ve been praying about how to trade XRP and XLM because it didn’t make sense to me how to sell something that I think is going to be so valuable one day.
The answer I got are these verses:
Genesis 41:34-36 – Let Pharaoh proceed to appoint overseers over the land and take one-fifth of the produce of the land of Egypt during the seven plentiful years . 35 And let them gather all the food of these good years that are coming and store up grain under the authority of Pharaoh for food in the cities, and let them keep it. 36 That food shall be a reserve for the land against the seven years of famine that are to occur in the land of Egypt , so that the land may not perish through the famine.”
I will be selling 20% when prices become “abundant” and I’ll probably do it in four 5% increments. Since no one knows where the top is, I am able to achieve an average sell price as prices rise and/or fall when prices are elevated. This strategy allows me to maintain my core position, take my initial buy risk off the table, and maybe even have a profit. I can then redeploy those gains by setting up buy limit orders when the prices are in a “famine”.
Selling 20% also helps keep my emotional stability and that’s just as valuable as taking profits. If I sell a large percentage only to see it go higher, I’ll probably struggle with why I sold it sooner. I may struggle to be patient waiting for a crash, hoping I’ve timed things properly. I don’t have to be concerned about timing if I’m selling a minor position while still capitalizing on high prices!
The point of this exercise is to be prepared and NOT to get caught up in the emotions of fear and greed. Emotional trading makes for bad decisions. Make sure you are prepared with your plan, whatever you decide to do.
Technical Analysis of Current Positions:
SHIB and LUNC have slightly come off their lows.
XRP has had a nice upside breakout from the wedge consolidation. We need to see it break the recent all time high of $3.40 to consider the possibility of higher gains.
XLM had a tremendous rally after breaking out of the recent downtrend.
We need to see it break and hold above $0.60 if it’s going to have a strong rally. That downtrend line has held for 7 years. We’ve got a good shot of breaking it if altcoin season comes.
OXT is now profitable after coming up off it’s lows with current prices at 0.0626. ZBCN has retraced after moving higher which is normal. It’s in the zone where it’s likely to turn higher if it’s still in a bullish structure like I think it is.
ZNOG has moved mostly sideways. We are still waiting for more news on Zion Oil striking oil.
That’s all for this week. Blessings all!
Ron
